Ranking the Best Picture Nominees: The 2025 Oscars.

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it’s certainly not an original thought, but it must restated for the purposes of this exercise; anyone looking to the Academy Awards to be a fair and just barometer of cinematic quality and taste is playing a fool’s game. perhaps most appropriately seen as something of a yearly check-in on the bizarre pulse of Hollywood (and the film industry the world over, with the international contingent of the Academy growing yearly), the Oscars are, for the sake of retaining one’s sanity, A Game. and so, with something so trivial, a ranking seems in order.

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if last year’s Best Picture 10 were perhaps more uniformly Good as a group (I would describe my least favorite of the bunch, AMERICAN FICTION, as merely Fine), this year’s crop of ten Best Picture nominees - saluting the “““best””” in 2024 cinema - is interesting in that it runs the wide gamut from “one of the best films of the 21st century” to “a bunch of extremely well-made crowdpleasers” to “cinematic excrement.” these are ten films wildly varied in quality, but also in content, style, scope, and especially genre. musicals, sci-fi, horror, biopics, the Pope, this year’s got it all!!!!

what follows is my personal ranking of this year’s Best Picture Nominees, from least favorite to most favorite. and just for fun, i’ll let you know where each film stands on my current list of 2024 films (that’s 114 films I saw and counting), plus what I think it’s chances are of actually winning the top prize. as a spoiler, I don’t think my #1 here has a strong chance of winning Best Picture at all. I love this business!!!!!!

10. EMILIA PEREZ2024 Ranking: 107/114.
    Best Picture Chances: 4th Most Likely.through sheer, brute force, Netflix has campaigned Jacques Audiard’s odious movie musical so damn hard that its ended up as this year’s nominations leader (13 in total!!!) and was even the initial de facto frontrunner. if it weren’t for a certain Karla Sofia Gascon’s noxious tweets being uncovered, it’s likely we’d be looking at another disastrous Best Picture winner to rival CRASH and GREEN BOOK. instead - though some industry support is still out there - EMILIA PEREZ is likely to remain a bizarre oddity of this year’s race, a melange of bad taste, big swings, and horrid judgement. yes, the tropes about Mexican culture are horrid and tired. yes, the tropes about trans culture are horrid and tired. yes, the songs are boring as sin. but above all else, Audiard’s film is just an overall slog, investing some energy in a handful of musical sequences but otherwise finding little to actually power its soap opera mechanics. the sooner we can move on from this mess, the better.

9. WICKED2024 Ranking: 100/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 7th Most Likely.forgive me for raining on the parade of one of 2024’s most popular, adored and profitable pieces of cinematic entertainment, but WICKED (Part One) just isn’t a very good movie. i’d argue, in fact, it’s quite bad. i think director Jon M. Chu (whose IN THE HEIGHTS I quite enjoyed!) has directorial impulses that just do not align with the kinds of things this particular story needs in a big-screen adaptation. things like Good Lighting, Good Pacing, Good Cinematography, and so on. those sets sure are big and pretty, and the lighting and color grading makes them look atrocious. gosh, that choreography is busy, but the cinematography refuses to focus on it in any interesting way. Ariana Grande is having fun, but everyone else is locked in a self-serious battle for the ages. the MCU-ification of this property has been a horror to see (can’t wait for the Peacock Original Series “Dr. Dillamond: The Shiz Years), and this movie just feels like a brilliant summation of all that’s wrong with contemporary filmmaking. what a joy! i’m very much looking forward to part 2 (so sorry, I mean, WICKED: FOR GOOD), just to see how the hell they tie this all up.

8. A COMPLETE UNKNOWN2024 Ranking: 76/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 8th Most Likely.from here on out, every movie on this list is something I generally enjoyed in some capacity or another, and there’s certainly lots to enjoy in James Mangold’s straightforward-as-they-come Bob Dylan biopic. a lovely Timothee Chalamet performance and the strength of the Dylan catalogue may be enough to carry most viewers through, but there’s also a bizarre lack of energy keeping this thing afloat. as thematically interesting as it may be - choosing to focus its narrative climax on the moment Dylan chooses to move from acoustic to electric guitar - there’s a dull energy moving from scene to scene, leaving us hanging out to dry on traditional music biopic tropes. those looking to catch some of Dylan’s energy and spirit would be better served watching Todd Hayne’s I’M NOT THERE, or D.A. Pennebaker’s DON’T LOOK BACK. or just listen to a Dylan record, while you’re at it. for anyone curious what Norbert Leo Butz has been up to these days, this film can help you out!

7. ANORA2024 Ranking: 74/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 1st Most Likely.in theory, I should be thrilled that a Sean Baker film is most likely going to win Best Picture. i’ve been a huge fan of Baker’s down-to-earth eccentric films ever since first seeing TANGERINE, and his previous film, RED ROCKET, remains one of my favorite theater-going experiences of any movie out there. there is something fascinating in seeing Baker’s personality get tamped down for this particular movie, and upon doing so, have the industry as a whole fully embrace him. if his prior work was thorny, then this feels like a rose with the thorns clipped off. the elements of a Sean Baker movie are here (a focus on the lower-class, outlandish physical comedy, a deep emotional core), but nothing pops with that same energy or vigor like his prior work. the Much-Talked-About ending is a bit too-little-too-late, a come-down for a film that never really reaches great heights in the first place. it’s genuinely wonderful for Baker to be in the spotlight, and he’s been using his various acceptance speeches as vehicles for wonderful, specific demands for better theatrical distribution and economic rights for filmmakers, so I can’t say I’m mad that he’s finally getting his flowers and openly advocating for a better film industry. i just wish it were for a film with a little bit more fire in its belly.

6. THE SUBSTANCE2024 Ranking: 67/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 6th Most Likely.
   i’d argue that, at the very least, it’s a Net Positive that a movie like THE SUBSTANCE found its way into the Best Picture competition. yes, the whole “it’s about Hollywood and Acting” angle certainly helped, but seeing a full-tilt body-horror work among the Ten this year is pretty fun, and hopefully means a larger appreciation of horror in the future. and Demi Moore (potentially winning Best Actress? idk!!) gives a very fun performance that deserves all the attention its getting. that said, I think THE SUBSTANCE is a very Dumb movie, and I say that as a compliment. this movie doesn’t have a subtle bone in its body, to the point where I can’t tell whether the movie wants to be obvious in its messaging and aesthetics, or if it thinks we’re too dumb to understand it and needs to keep hammering us over the head with what it’s saying (the fact that the movie runs a ghastly 2 hours and 20 minutes certainly doesn’t help). by the fifth time it repeated a line of dialogue from a scene ten minutes prior, I was ready to throw something at the screen. but goodness does it commit to its nonsense, and the practical effects and sheer gall of its bloody finale were enough to win me over. if this movie wins Best Original Screenplay i’m going to eat my hat.

5. I’M STILL HERE

   2024 Ranking: 36/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 5th Most Likely.

   fun fact; this is the first time since 1978 (!!!) that all five Best Actress nominees were all from films nominated for Best Picture1. wowza! anyhoo, landing right in the middle of the pack is a film that pretty much nails the task of being Perfectly Fine. maybe even Good! if anything, current political context is the one thing in Walter Salles’ film’s favor, his story of a family under crisis while living under a strict military dictatorship finding eerie parallels with our own nightmare governmental situation. eek! Fernanda Torres is about as good as you’ve heard, navigating an emotionally taxing role with distinct craft and control. many have called this a “throwback” film, as in, the kind of movie that Hollywood studios used to crank out across the 1990s, and many are correct! that they were able to sneak their way into Best Picture certainly shows a sign of the film’s strengths, I’ll give it that. whether that stronger international voting contingent will be enough to get a surprise Best Picture win? stranger things have happened, I guess.

4. DUNE: PART TWO2024 Ranking: 30/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 10th Most Likely.why does DUNE: PART TWO feel so lost at sea among this year’s nominees? a critically acclaimed, financially successful blockbuster that audiences enjoyed, nominated for Best Picture, it’s the Academy’s dream! and yet, all of the Awards-Favorite Blockbuster energy seems to have landed on WICKED instead, which, may I remind you, is a Bad Movie. DUNE: PART TWO, on the other hand, absolutely rips. it furthers Denis Villeneuve’s sumptuous (if muted) aesthetic vision of Frank Herbert’s book, really committing to the scope at hand with every tool he has at his disposal. I love how the adaptation strengthens Chani’s (Zendaya) role, I love how committed it all is to the ultimate fallacy of White Savior Narratives, I love everything with Austin Butler. it’s pretty much everything you would want from a Super Serious sci-fi film, and from what I’ve heard, the third part (Dune: Messiah) is only going to be more bonkers. also, Javier Bardem is having the time of his life here.

3. THE BRUTALIST2024 Ranking: 29/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 3rd Most Likely.people love talking about THE BRUTALIST, don’t they? from overblown A.I. controversies, to bizarre misreadings of its messaging about Zionism, to tired jokes about how long it is, it seems like everyone loves to have an opinion about the Big Building Movie. well SO DO I.
   HOT TAKE, INCOMING!!!!!
   …THE BRUTALIST is good. maybe even great, but mostly good.
   …there ya go!
   if anything, I appreciate how much Brady Corbet has meaningfully stuffed in here, even if only some of it really pays off. there is potent discussion throughout, most notably regarding the dread of artists needing to capitulate to the forces of capitalism, alongside post-World War II Jewish Trauma and how that manifests in ways both intensely personal and broadly political. it’s a big film making big gestures and when you do that, well, you tend to stumble quite a bit. THE BRUTALIST frequently stumbles (most notably in its post-intermission second half), but it tries, by gum. and i’ll give it that!

2. CONCLAVE2024 Ranking: 9/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 2nd Most Likely.as I’m writing this, the current Pope is seemingly near death, and boy oh boy, all I can think of is “……lotta CONCLAVE memes incoming, huh?” there’s something almost impressive about this airport novel of a film inexplicably becoming a meme factory for the Tragically Online. but if CONCLAVE isn’t the most artful film of the bunch here, i’d argue it’s maybe the most entertaining. this is a film that is fully aware of how prestige theatrics can operating as set dressing for petty squabbling, how tight and coordinated aesthetics can help support comic storytelling, the interplay of high and low drama is almost balletic here. and yet, amidst what is, ultimately, a highbrow piece of popcorn entertainment, is a fascinating story of political infighting, of compromising in the name of halting fascism and bigotry, and of Isabella Rossellini curtseying like a motherfucker. CONCLAVE is the perfect film for a generation raised on Real Housewives and reality game show culture, but, you know, Popes. if it does pull off a Best Picture win, it’s hard to say how kind time will be to that verdict, but it is undeniably a win for a movie that defines the moment.

1. NICKEL BOYS2024 Ranking: 1/114.
   Best Picture Chances: 9th Most Likely.
   NICKEL BOYS, one of the most formally daring, thematically rich, and emotionally remarkable films of the century - let alone the year - seems to have found itself in the Best Picture race as more of an afterthought than anything (it’s the nominee with the least amount of nominations with 2; this, and Adapted Screenplay). if Best Picture were actually a yearly tally of the greatest artistic achievements in cinema for the year, it would likely be regularly populated with independent experiments and international arthouse dressing. instead, we find ourselves amidst mid-tier studio dramas, hagiographic biopics, and whatever EMILIA PEREZ is. somehow, some way, RaMell Ross’ titanic piece of truly living cinema is part of the conversation, a mesmerizing work grappling with Black pain and purpose, and expanding the forms of cinematic storytelling to do so. Ross has repeatedly discussed this film by referring to the camera as an “organ,” a living, breathing apparatus that bears weight and responsibility for the images it transmits, and you feel that weight and care and intention in every frame of this movie. NICKEL BOYS is that most wondrous of films, that bristles with intellect and emotion and grace, that will undoubtedly be watched and discussed for years to come. it is one of the most thoughtful and intelligent films i’ve seen in years. naturally, it will not win Best Picture.

what’s your favorite of the Best Picture nominees? who do you think is taking home the grand prize this Sunday? what Peacock Original Series inspired by WICKED are you most excited for? have a good one, folks!